Kopi Luwak Investing

 As I mention earlier in Pinduoduo articles , I am going to discuss on JD.com. It is one of emerging power in China, trying to challenge the dominance of BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent).  Despite previously I try to avoid JD, but based on latest quarterly report, I put JD in my radar again. Different from Alibaba which is more like digital platform for seller and buyer meet, JD was investing heavily in logistics and transportation ecosystem [1] This cause JD has lower margin than Alibaba but have tighter control over quality of their product and speed of delivery. This may payoff eventually just like Amazon did in US.  Revenue growth for last 3 years is 30%. This is looks undervalue with P/Sales at 1.25 only. After record first time profit in 2019, in the latest quarter report Q2 2020 it has surpass the analyst prediction by double their profit to 700M$ (48.85B Yuan).  Based on Graham calculation, the target price is at 110$, or return of 41% with current price at 78.9...

 SPAC stands for  special purpose acquisition companies. Is a share created in stock market as a shell company. This mean it does not have structure, worker, economy activities or revenue. This is just like a blank check company. It usually sell at very generic price, 10$ per share as it is have no paper value behind it.  The sole purpose that SPAC creation is facilitate funding of fast growing company who want to go public. Rather than go through traditional IPO route, some companies find it is more profitable and less admin job to go through SPAC [1] . Once the potential target company ready to go public, SPAC will merge with target company and target company become public immediately. Historically, all SPAC has been quite succesful. One of example is Virgin Galactic (NYSE: SPCE) When you buy the stock before the merger announcement, you will get 250% return at the height of the price. Around 2-3 month after the merger announcement. Even after price stabilized, you stil...

 One of the short ride I enjoyed was Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA). It is pharmaceutical company that does not even have product yet.  The only reason I bought it because it is one of the frontier in the COVID-19 vaccine research and development. It is using a unconventional method where could speed up to 3x compare to standard vaccine development method [1] .  I enter on 26-June at 61.3$, which considered late to join the party. It already rise by 300% from Mar'20.  After news saying that it has been success in trial and proceeding to phase 2 trial on thousands of people, it goes up to 82$, even 94$ on 17-July. I sold it on 20-Jul, 3 days after highest point, after I heard some development news of vaccine in some countries, like China, Russia, and US itself. This means Moderna is not having niche on this vaccine. I sold it as 82$ or 20% return, which not bad for 1 month play.  I considered it as niche play. [1] https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/22/21266897/coronavirus-v...

 Renewable Energy Group Inc. (NASDAQ: REGI) is a renewable energy company based at Delaware state. Although it is renewable but it has been established quite some time since 1996. With 13 Bio refineries facilities across the countries, it has 1.5B$ total asset [1] . REGI enjoy BTC (biodiesel tax credit)  or government subsidies up to 2022 [2] .  The major attractive point to me is considerably low price (currently at 37.61$). P/E is only 2.8 while revenue growth rate (3 years average) is 9%. However if using DCF EBITDA 5 years to calculate, it only value at 31$ and max. at 36$. This is because historically it was not really stable in term of earnings.  Financially,  it has very low debt. Current ratio is 2.93 and Debt/Equity only 0.09.  It also very profitable with ROE of 61% in latest quarter up from 40% level of 2018 and 2019. Major customer are truck that used to transport logistics and foods, which are essential during this pandemics. Despite oil price ...

 With the flight slowly opening and restriction lifted, US has record number passenger recently since March'20 [1] . Opportunities for turnaround play arises for aviation industries. After review some of the airlines, I pick Delta Airlines (NYSE:DAL) for this potential turn around play. Three considerations are valuation, financial resiliency and strategy. Even before COVID-19, Delta is considerably modest investment with PEG of 0.73, well below ratio of 1. With 5 years average growth of 5%, P/E in 2019 slightly overvalue at 8.26. After price drop in Feb-Mar'20, now P/E become 4.86 and become value buy.  Long term debt has increase considerably by 5B$ in Q1'20 and 6.7B$ in Q2'20. However this is small compare to total asset of 53B$ including 38B$ of airplane. It has also has cash reserve of 2.88B$ before 2020. Current ratio is less than half in 2019.  With Q2'20 loss of -3B$, we could believe that Delta could survive year 2020. Besides government support, Delta also...

 After the years of dominance of China old guard, which we call BAT (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent). There are newcomer who trying to shake off their dominance. These young companies are called TAMP, which consist of JD.com (NASDAQ:JD), Didi Chuxing, Tiktok, Meituan (SEHK:3690) and Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD).  For me the most interesting and attractive is Pinduoduo. Not only it has reform it management and business to meet the NASDAQ standard, it also has been growing tremendously in last few years. In only 5 years it has achieve number of user (600 millions) and total sales (1 Trillion CNY or 144B$) that Alibaba took 10 years to achieve [1] .  The success is through mass buying system, the user who want to buy similar item could form group so that could order together in bulk at lower price. The seller will get more order quantity, in exchange for lower margin [2] . Revenue growth is 290% for 3 years average. P/E negative due to negative earning. P/Sales is 20x in last quarter...